19
Activities
Future outlook
Consumption-driven economic
growth...
Turkish economy is expected to preserve
its moderate growth rate in 2016 thanks to
the improvement in domestic demand and
anticipated relative recovery in economic
activity in key export markets. Furthermore,
in order to support the economy when
needed, Turkey has enough room to
maneuver on the fiscal front. On the other
hand, recently heightened geopolitical
risks could, albeit to a limited degree,
have impact on economic expansion. The
expected rebound in domestic demand
could put upward pressure on the current
account deficit, while low commodity
prices, especially low oil prices, are foreseen
to support the improvement in the current
account balance. The potential negative
impact of recently deteriorating relations
with Russia on trade relations is expected
to become more evident in 2016. This
indicates that the recovery in the external
balance could come under pressure to some
extent in the forthcoming period.
A cautious monetary policy stance...
The CBRT is expected to take steps by
considering the possible impacts of
Fed decisions on global volatility. In this
regard, the projected aim for the CBRT is
to focus on minimizing domestic risks as
much as possible by keeping risk premium
differences between Turkey and developed
countries at a flat level.
The banking industry will move
forward with cautious growth.
It is likely that the monetary policy the Fed
plans to pursue in the coming period will
continue to cause considerable fluctuations
in emerging markets. However, assuming
that this process will proceed at a gradual
pace, foreign capital flows to Turkey is
anticipated to continue. Implementation
of macro-prudential measures to curb
growth in retail loans and new regulations
with regard to the capital adequacy in the
framework of Basel III are expected to play
a big part in the performance of banking
sector in the coming period. Banks are
anticipated to continue utilizing alternative
funding sources in the coming year.
Additionally, the banking sector is expected,
as in previous years, to continue supporting
the growth of the Turkish economy.
(*)
Calculated using monthly sector data published by the Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency. Interest accruals and rediscounts are not taken into
account. Participation banks are excluded from sector numbers.
15.6%
The capital adequacy ratio of
Turkish banks stood at 15.6%
(*)
in 2015.
